Griffin Wong preps you for Game 2 between the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.
Of the eight teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs, seven were part of the bracket last season. The other team — the Detroit Pistons — had not been since the 2018-19 season, and they’ve had the worst record in the NBA over the last five seasons, even after posting a 44-38 record this season.
Detroit looked to be on its way to a Game 1 victory when it took a 98-90 lead with just over nine minutes remaining in the game. But the New York Knicks went on a 21-0 run to dash the Pistons’ hopes and give themselves the edge going into Game 2 tonight at Madison Square Garden.
The Knicks are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 220.5. New York is -258 on the Moneyline, and Detroit is +210.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $70K Fadeaway [$20K to 1st] (DET @ NYK).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Brunson ($15,600 CP) – I have high expectations for Brunson tonight, as I think he’ll score at least 35 points for the ninth time in his Knicks playoff career. The southpaw came just one point short of hitting that mark on Saturday despite shooting just four-for-15 in the first half, and there’s reason to believe that his usage rate — the fifth-highest among all players who played non-garbage time minutes in the eight Game 1’s — is more sustainable than his mediocre efficiency. Especially if the Knicks find themselves in a clutch situation, Brunson should carry the offensive load, as his combination of usage and efficiency skyrockets in crunch time.
Plus, while the Pistons theoretically have the tools to slow him down — Cade Cunningham ($16,500 CP), with his six-foot-six frame, spent less than a minute on him, but did guard him at points during New York’s game-sealing run and forced him to pass it out — Brunson did a good job at thwarting the defense through a combination of floaters, step-back jumpers, and drives on Saturday. Dennis Schroder ($6,300 CP) and Ausar Thompson ($7,500 CP) guarded Brunson for much of the game, and only Schröder managed to slow him down at all. Given Brunson’s good track record against the German national team captain during the regular season, that spells trouble for Detroit unless Thompson can figure out a way to improve tonight.
Malik Beasley ($9,600 CP) – Experience is ultra-important in the playoffs, which is the primary reason why the Knicks are such heavy favorites over the Pistons in this series overall. Most of Detroit’s key contributors have none, but that isn’t true for the Sixth Man of the Year finalist. He’s played 38 playoff games for five different teams, making a run to the conference finals with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2022-23, although he was a rarely-used end-of-the-bench piece for that Lakers team. Coach of the Year finalist J.B. Bickerstaff clearly trusted him, giving him 35 minutes in Game 1 — more than starters Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,900 CP), and Jalen Duren ($11,400 CP). He also attempted 16 shots, more than anyone on the team except Cunningham.
The Knicks never figured out the best strategy to slow him down on Saturday, trying him with seven different defenders for at least one minute of total game time, and only Mikal Bridges ($10,500 CP) and Cameron Payne ($3,000 CP) had much success at doing so. If his three-point shot is falling, there’s not much defenders can do, and New York allowed the league’s fifth-highest three-point percentage during the regular season. His salary is also cheap enough that you can captain him and still pair him with multiple high-end starters, which is important given the Knicks’ shallow rotation.
FLEX Plays
OG Anunoby ($8,800) – When Brunson missed a month with a sprained ankle after taking a hard fall in New York’s March 6 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, it represented an opportunity for the team’s bevy of talented wings to step up. Anunoby did just that, averaging 23.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game across Brunson’s absence while shooting 47.6% from the field and 39.2% from deep. He continued his hot form even after Brunson’s return, posting games of 32, 13, and 15 points (46.0, 30.5, and 30.5 FPTS) to end the regular season before opening his postseason ledger with 23 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high five steals (46.25 FPTS).
Steals aside, his production should be relatively sustainable, given his merely average efficiency in Saturday’s game. He was predominantly guarded by Cunningham, whose size is the only positive defensive attribute he has. But Anunoby — who’s six-foot-seven — is bigger than Cunningham, so he was able to find plenty of success, scoring 10 points on three-for-seven shooting in just under 10 minutes of total game time when guarded by the Pistons star. He also held Cunningham to just five points on two-for-eight shooting, and though none of his steals came when he was directly guarding Cunningham, the former first overall pick did average 4.4 giveaways per contest during the regular season.
Jalen Duren ($7,600) – If you choose Beasley to be your captain, you can opt for a more expensive option such as Cunningham or Karl-Anthony Towns ($11,400) to fill our your lineup, but if you’ve chosen Brunson, either of those two players is too cost-prohibitive. I’m still a believer in Detroit’s young center, who found ways to contribute in Game 1 despite not scoring much. He finished with seven points, six rebounds, three assists, three blocks, and a steal (26.5 FPTS) on Saturday, and he posted six double-doubles in his last eight regular-season games. Duren might also get a little more playing time than usual tonight with Isaiah Stewart ($3,600) out due to a knee injury; in the 10 games Stewart missed this season, Duren played 30 or more minutes in all but three, and he has averaged 1.24 FPTS per minute this season.
I’m also not entirely a believer in Towns’ defense despite the fact that he played relatively well against Duren during the Knicks’ stretch run on Saturday. Rim protection isn’t everything, but during the regular season, opponents shot 2.0 percentage points better than usual within six feet of the basket when Towns was guarding them, the fourth-worst mark among 30 centers who played at least 65 games. Duren was fine in his six minutes against Towns, recording four points on two-for-three shooting, dishing out two assists, and turning the ball over once.
Fades
Josh Hart ($9,000) – Of the three New York wings, Hart wasn’t the most disappointing on Saturday; that (dis)honor belonged to Bridges, who went just four-for-nine from the field for eight points, two rebounds, two assists, and two blocks (17.5 FPTS). But Bridges is due for a bounce-back; after the All-Star break, he took on a bigger role in the offense, averaging 18.1 points per game on 14.2 shot attempts, while Hart went the other way: 11.3 points and 9.6 field goal attempts. Scoring isn’t everything, of course, but Hart’s decreased shooting responsibility hinders his fantasy ceiling, especially with Brunson operating in a heliocentric fashion in the playoffs.
What makes Hart an X-factor is his rebounding; among players six-foot-four or shorter, only Russell Westbrook and Oscar Robertson have averaged more than the 9.6 boards that Hart grabbed this season. But in four games against Detroit this season, he’s only recorded double-digit rebounds once, and he’s also dished out five or fewer assists in three of the four games. Bickerstaff put Duren on him during Game 1 and Tobias Harris ($8,000) on Towns, and while Towns had a pretty good game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him roll out the same strategy in Game 2. Duren’s a good rebounder and should limit Hart again in his standout skill.
THE OUTCOME
In a way, Game 1 shouldn’t have been as close as it was. Several Pistons role players — Harris, Beasley, and Hardaway — all scored well above their season averages, Bridges played a passive role on offense, and Brunson was awful in the first half. The Knicks grabbed just 36 total rebounds against a team that gave up an average of 42.5 per game during the regular season.
But on the other hand, Detroit’s chances of making a playoff run start and end with Cunningham, and while he had a decent stat line — 21 points, six rebounds, and 12 assists (45.5 FPTS) — his efficiency wasn’t great and he coughed up six turnovers. By fantasy output, it was his 14th-worst game since the start of January, so there’s some real room for improvement going into Game 2. New York won’t put up 53-39-88 shooting splits every game, and Payne certainly can’t be expected to chip in 14 points off the bench. The Pistons won’t wilt in the spotlight again.
In the end, one team has the likely Clutch Player of the Year winner and plays in the hallowed grounds of Madison Square Garden in a playoff environment, and that’ll make all the difference. The Knicks squeak this one out behind a Brunson floater with 6.6 seconds left.
